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Mammals studies
Estimating spatial structure, density, and feeding habits of the wolf population
Intense snow tracking of wolves will be conducted in order to estimate the number and size of wolf packs in the Biebrza Valley. Wolf trails will be followed for a few days with the aim to find all consecutive prey in a given time period. This will allow to estimate the kill rate and to calculate wolf predation impact on each species of ungulate prey. All records of wolf observations, their tracks, and prey remains will be collected year-round.
Another method of estimating wolf population density will be based on the stimulated howling. This method will be applied mainly in summer (when wolf activity is concentrated at the den and rendezvous sites) in order to distinguish between neighboring packs. Also in summer, after the period of pup rearing, all potential den sites will be inspected to confirm breeding.
Wolf scats will be collected for diet analyses and for genetic samples. DNA extracted from wolf scats will be analyzed in order to distinguish packs and individuals, and count a total number of wolves. Additionally, special forms for recording wolf tracks, observations, and prey remains will be distributed among all field workers of the Biebrza National Park and the neighbouring State Forest districts. Data from the field workers will be collected 4 times a year.
Estimating ungulate community structure, population density, and habitat selection by each ungulate species
General information on ungulate numbers will be obtained from Biebrza National Park. The park conducts annual censuses of ungulates, based on year-round visual observations and snow tracking. We will cooperate with the park personnel in developing the census methods. If possible, drive-censuses will be applied. Additionally, pellet counts will be conducted on transects. It will give another measure of relative numbers of ungulates, their variation, and habitat preferences of each species.
Developing mathematical model of wolf-ungulate-vegetation interactions
A mathematical model will be developed based on the data collected under this project and the data on population dynamics of moose, red deer, and wolves during the last 30 years. The aim of this model will be to explain the relative importance of predation, competition, and natural plant succession (in consequence of ameliorations and draining) in the observed changes in ungulate community structure during the recent decades.
